The 3 Horizons Method (Adapted for Strategic Foresight)
Description:
The 3 Horizons framework is used for strategic foresight to explore the future and its possibilities by dividing it into three time horizons: the Present, the Near Future, and the Long-term Future. This tool allows teams to think about current trends, emerging possibilities, and long-term transformation.
Step-by-Step Guide:
Define the Current Horizon (Horizon 1):
Identify the current state of the organization or system. What are the immediate challenges and opportunities?
This horizon represents what is happening today and what is already established.
Map the Emerging Future (Horizon 2):
Identify trends and signals of change that are starting to emerge but are not yet fully developed.
This horizon is about emerging opportunities and uncertain future pathways that will shape the next 3-5 years.
Explore the Transformative Future (Horizon 3):
This horizon represents long-term possibilities, imagining radical change or innovation that could transform the system or organization in the next 10+ years.
Ask questions like, "What would the world look like if we took a bold leap into the future?"
Connect the Horizons:
Look at how Horizon 1 trends can transform into Horizon 2, and how Horizon 2 might evolve into the bold future of Horizon 3. Identify areas where interventions or actions are needed.
Action Plan:
Once the horizons are mapped, create actionable steps that the team can take to influence the future. Identify low-risk experiments that could help explore or prototype parts of Horizon 2 or Horizon 3.
When to use it:
When you need to visualize multiple future scenarios and identify key opportunities.
For long-term strategic planning or when your team needs to think beyond immediate challenges.
When you want to balance current needs with future aspirations.
Why it works:
The 3 Horizons method helps teams think strategically about the future, enabling them to align short-term actions with long-term goals. It fosters future-oriented thinking, helping teams prepare for uncertainty and change.
